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Popescu, Alba Iulia Catrinel. International Scientific Conference “Strategies XXI”, suppl. Centre for Defence and Security Strategic Studies; Bucharest 1: 106-115. Bucharest: “Carol I” National Defence University. (2014)
Dr. Alba Iulia Catrinel POPESCU
Abstract: Stung by the West’s economic sanctions as a result of its role played in triggering and maintaining the present crisis in Ukraine, the Russian Federation is looking for solutions to help maintain its energy dominance of Europe and extend its economic, military, political and diplomatic strength. In this context, Africa’s resources, upon which the international economic system depends, are in play. How will the West counteract Russia’s increasingly aggressive penetration in Sub-Saharan countries which were traditionally in the West’s sphere of influence? How will China react? Are we going to witness an understanding between the BRICS and the West relating to a new division of Africa? Will there be new conflicts?
Key words: Ukrainian Crisis, Trans-Sahara Gas Pipeline, NIGAZ, NDB, AFROCOM, BRICS.
Motto: „Gas is a commodity, but it’s a special commodity. (…)
You get a bit grumpy if you don’t have a cup of coffee,
but you’ll survive. Gas is different.” – Assis Malaquias[i]
During September 2014, two news items have exploded in the Nigerian press. Australian negotiator Stephen Davis[ii] has accused people from current President Goodluck Jonathan entourage of funding the terrorist organization Boko Haram,'Mable2' Geiger loafers 'Mable2' Geiger Kurt KG KG Kurt BUxOU58q while Nigerian intelligence sources claimed that Nigerian soldiers are being trained by the Russian Federation and that the Nigerian federal government has decided to buy Russian weaponry as traditional Western allies have failed to fully support Nigeria’s against the insurgency of Boko Haram[iv]. On the other hand, since August 2014, the alarm was sounded over on the Russian diplomatic and economic offensive in Africa which was intended to secure energy transport networks to Europe and dominate regions rich in strategic resource fields. Stung by the Westerners’ economic sanctions as a result of the role played in triggering and maintaining present crisis in Ukraine, the Russian Federation is looking for solutions to help maintain Moscow’s energy advantages and preserve its economic, military, political and diplomatic strength. How will the West counteract Russia’s increasingly aggressive penetration in Sub-Saharan countries which were traditionally in the West’s sphere of influence? Will China accept BRICS transformation into a vehicle to serve Russia’s geopolitical interests? Will the BRICS transform into a new Non Aligned Movement with Russia as a flag bearer? Are we going to witness an understanding between the BRICS and the West relating to a new division of Africa? Will there be new conflicts?
A revisionist Russian Federation and African gas stake
The Russian Federation’s strategy for reaffirming itself as a great power has been based on two cards that are being played against the West: Europe’s energy dependence on Russian gas, and emerging nation diplomatic support in the UN Security Council in matters such as Afghanistan, Iran and North Korea, as well as the international space program or agreements on strategic and conventional weapons.
The Ukrainian crisis has awakened the West to Moscow’s true intentions of rebuilding the former Soviet Empire. Even if there weren’t already so very clear signals, suffice it to say the Georgian[v] crisis in 2008, the period of time since the dismantling of the Soviet Union was characterized by Western passivity toward the steps the Kremlin took in order to achieve that reconstruction. Russia was tolerated when she generated and maintained the so-called frozen conflicts in the former Soviet Union, when she infiltrated the internal economic, financial and political affairs of Europe, and when she fractured the common European energy policy with regard to the construction of the Nabuco gas pipeline. NATO Secretary General, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, emphasized at the September 2014 Allied Summit that a revisionist Russia “has shown that it is willing to use all means, including force, to extend its influence and control over independent sovereign nations in blatant disregard of international law” which is why we assist to “a fundamentally new security situation in Europe” that requires a reshaping of Euro-Atlantic security in the next decade, in other words, the adoption of a new strategic concept. It is obvious that the annexation of the Crimea peninsula and the hybrid war tactics used in Ukraine have shrunk and diluted the soft power tools used by the Russian Federation in the relationship with the West.
What can Russia do in this context? Russia has Europe in an economic vice predicated on European dependence on Russian energy, she stimulates all kinds of disputes within the European Union using extremists, revisionists, and representatives of Euro-skeptic political parties, she promotes her views and interests through obedient media institutions in an effort to divide and rule Europe. How important is the control of alternative energy sources to Europe? In a word, vital.
In 2009, right after the Georgian crisis, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev visited a number of African countries in a diplomatic tour aimed at rebuilding Moscow’s dominance in the region and to accelerate trade in hydrocarbons, rare earth metals REM, uranium, diamonds, ferrous and non ferrous ores[vi]. The diplomatic tour included Nigeria – the largest oil producer in Africa and owner of untapped natural gas deposits, as well as iron ore, coal, uranium and REM; Angola – oil and diamonds producer; Zimbabwe – one of the largest global producers of platinum and diamonds, and Egypt, a former ally and holder of oil, natural gas, uranium and REM ores.
In 2005, Nigerian officials, along with those of Niger and Algeria joined in the New Partnership for African Development Initiatives (NEPAD), started construction of a Trans-Saharan pipeline meant to supply Europe with Nigerian gas. The pipeline, with a length of 4,128 km, was to be built and operated by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, NNPC, and Sonatrach Algerian National Oil Company in order to transport gas from the Nigerian Delta State to the Algerian terminals El Kala and Beni Şaf on the Mediterranean Sealoafers Grey 'Glorya' suede Dune platform SI8HYwq, and from there, through Trans-Maghreb-Europe, Mediterranean, Medgaz, and Galsi pipelines to the Spanish and European distribution network. Completion date for this project is scheduled for 2015 at a total cost of $12 billion. Major companies in the energy field like Total SA, Royal Dutch Shell, Eni and GAIL have declared an interest in this huge strategic and business opportunity. In this context, during President Medvedev’s visit to Nigeria, an agreement between the Russian and the Nigerian Government was signed creating a joint venture with equal shares held by Gazprom and NNPC. The venture, named NIGAZ, saw the Russians assume responsibility for the construction of the 1,037 km Nigerian segment of the Trans-Saharan pipeline. This agreement represented a real blow to Europe. If the project will be successful the Russians will be able to manipulate the gas flow buttons efficiently when geopolitical interests require it. If the project will fail, the Russians will win again, because the African gas will not fill the European pipelines.
It appears the artisan of this agreement is Rilwanu Lukman, PhD, a Gazprom International employee since after the period when he was Minister of Petroleum in the Nigerian Government. He is also co-founder of Afren Plc, a Gazprom business partner with whom it shares the responsibilities and the benefits of this agreementRite leatherFloral Chelsea 2 Start Navy ZwdRt1wq5. The same Dr. Lukman, who was the Adviser on Strategic Issues and Energy of the President Yar’Adua, seems to have convinced state authorities to sign an agreement facilitating Russian-Nigerian exploitation of uranium ores, Nigeria being the holder of the seven percent of global uranium reserves. On the 4th of June 2012, in Moscow an agreement was signed between the Russian state owned company, Rosatom, and the Nigerian Nuclear Regulatory Agency, the NNRA, to construct a nuclear power plant in Nigeria, the second in Africa since the Russians built the Koeberg nuclear plant in the South African Republic in 1984[ix].
On the 19th of September 2014, Nigerian mass media published a statement from the Australian negotiator Dr. Stephen Davis charging that the former Chief of the General staff of the Nigerian Army Lieutenant General Azubuike Ihejirika, a still un-named high official of the Central Bank of Nigeria CBN, and Ali Modu Sheriff, a former Governor of Borno State (who was also an intimate of the current president, Goodluck Jonathan), are among the sponsors of the terrorist group Boko Haram. Dr Davis’ statement is supported by the 1986 Nobel Laureate for literature, Wole Soyinka[x]. This very strong accusation concerning the Nigerian Central Bank’s involvement in money laundering operations for the benefit of a terrorist organization that threaten the state’s stability must be looked at in a broader context. On the 20th of September 2014, in the Nigerian press disseminated another very interesting report the source of which was the Nigerian Secret Service. It stated that alleged Nigerian officials have decided to turn to Russian and Chinese expertise to fight Boko Haram after traditional Western allies failed to support the struggle against the insurgency. Consequently, staff belonging to the army, police, state security service SSS, are being trained in counterterrorism in the Russian Federation and, once training is concluded, will constitute the Nigerian Special Forces Brigade. Furthermore, Nigerian officials have decided to purchase heavy weaponry and logistics from Russia charging the West has refused to offer their support in this area as well, according to sources in the Nigerian Secret Service.
Starting in 2009, Boko Haram initiated attacks on representative institutions of state power marking a new stage in its evolution as a terrorist organization from an extremist group with anarchist-type events designed to destabilize and to create anxiety in the target population, to an organization of a political and military type that espouses a political program to set up an Islamic State, to purge Nigeria of all that does not belong to Islamic culture and civilization, and that organizes its actions following rules of military planning. This evolution, coupled with the end of the good relations between Russia and its western partners following the Georgian crisis, plus the current reports about Russian military and logistics expertise provided to the Nigerians as a result of a purported lack of Western support against interest the Boko Haram insurgency begins to gain new dimensions. The situation is more complicated whereas Nigeria is one of the pillars of the West in Sub Saharan region, is the largest African market with one-quarter of the total population of the Sub-Sahara, acquires an army listed among the best of the whole Sub Saharan region and a consistently strong political-diplomatic influence both in the African Union and regional organizations.
Another point of attraction for the Kremlin is Algeria, the third largest supplier of natural gas to Europe after Russia and Norway, and the second natural largest gas producer on the African continent. Assis Malaquias, expert in economic defense at Africa Center for Strategic Studies in Washington, D.C., stated that, in 2015, Russia will reach an average of 40% control of the supply of gas in Europe as a result of her penetration in North African gas producer states, and he warned Spain and Italy about the possibility of losing alternative sources of supply from Algeria and Egypt[xi]. Energy dependence on Russia represents a limiting factor on the ability of Europeans to react in sensitive matters such as Ukraine, Syria or in potential further developments in the Republic of Moldavia. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, during 2003-2012 the volume of Algerian government expenditure for the acquisition of Russian weaponry and military equipment has reached 91% of a total of $54 billion budget and representing 10% of the total Russian military exportsBlack Black Black Dior Pumps Pumps Dior Dior TpqwfEx. This special military cooperation started during the Cold War when the Soviet Union was the first state to recognize Algeria’s independence from French domination and continued as Moscow was the main partner in rebuilding the country after the independence war. In 2009, in eastern Algeria, the Algerian-Russian El Assel Project for exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas was initiated with Sonatrach owning 51% of the shares and the remaining 49% belonging to Gazprom InternationalBlack Mellow Yellow Baloma Yellow Mellow qq0wBvS. During February 2014, Gazprom International was officially invited by Sid Ali Betata, president of the National Agency for the Development of Hydrocarbon Resources ALNAFT, to participate in the international tender for the exploration and exploitation of 30 new potential gas deposits plots, representing 19% of Algerian territory[xiv].
The SAR, a bastion of Western culture in Sub Saharan Africa, signed an agreement of strategic partnership in nuclear energy with the Russian Federation, in September 2014. The $ 10 billion agreement provides for the construction by Rosatom of eight nuclear reactors, with a capacity of 9.6 GW by the end of 2030. These new production capacities will compliment two other nuclear reactors already in operation at the nuclear power station at Koeberg accounting for six percent of the total domestic electricity demand of the SAR[xv].
Russian interests are not confined to fields of energy or exports of weapons. African deposits of chromium, mercury, manganese, aluminum, REM, copper, zinc, nickel, and the mines for diamonds and platinum are targeted, too. At the present time Russia imports 100% of their domestic consumption of manganese, 80% of their chromium needs and 60% of bauxite, a large part of the latter from Guinee. According to the African Development Bank, in 2013, Russian companies invested in Africa around $ 20 billion in the production of energy, mineral-extracting industries, fishing and agriculture. In 2009, the Coordination Committee on Economic Cooperation with African Countries, AFROCOM[xvi] was created, as a body which brings together, under the leadership of the president of the Russian state-owned bank Vnesekonombank, various ministries, government agencies, economic agents interested in the African market. This committee collaborates with the Russian Agency for Export Credit and Investment Insurance EXIAR[xvii] that was created in 2011 with the aim of protecting investors who enter the market from political and military risks. Creating such an agency demonstrates the Kremlin’s determination to rebuild its influence and to take control of the Sub Saharan region.
In this respect, a sample of strategic thinking represents the 2012 Russian governmental decision to delete $20 billion of historical debt of African states initiated during the period of the USSR and subsequently transferred to the Russian Federation[xviii]. This decision is one of many in 2008, when Moscow canceled another $16 billion in debt owed by the same countries. In addition, Russia has announced the transfer of $50 million to the World Bank Foundation for the Poor with the aim of developing regions located in Sub Saharan Africa, and has granted more than 8,000 places in its own universities for young Africans, of which 4,000 are study grants. Russia has signed agreements with Zambia and Tanzania through which the value of debts canceled will be used for development in those two states. Other similar agreements are to be concluded with Ethiopia, Mozambique and Benin. These states are not altruistically chosen. There are large deposits of REM in Zambia, Tanzania and Mozambique, and some countries are located in the immediate vicinity of geostrategic targets, as well as Ethiopia, Tanzania, Benin, Mozambique, the latter additionally holding large deposits of natural gas.
In the first half of 2014, in Moscow, a series of meetings was held between high-ranking Russian officials and their counterparts in Algeria, Angola, Egypt, Mauritania, Morocco, Mozambique, Eritrea, Uganda, Zimbabwe, Sudan and South SudanWomen's Extremely Sparkly Toe Heel Stilettos Silver High Open PPqAHr, countries rich in energy resources and minerals. The purpose of these visits, according to Russian Foreign Minister Serghei Lavrov, was to strengthen bilateral political and economic relations and to develop a strategic partnership which is a part of a more consistent Russian penetration in unstable regions but which are extremely important geopolitically, as well as on the Horn of Africa, the Sahel, northern and central Africa. It should be mentioned that Russia has become a security provider in the Sub Saharan region with peacekeeping troops under the aegis of the UN in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, South Sudan and the South Western Sahara. At the present time, the Russian Federation has more troops in blue helmets in Sub Saharan Africa than the USA, Great Britain and France together[xx].
In relation to the African countries Russia benefits from the old connections laid down in the time of Soviet Union, from the tens of thousands of civilian and military specialists trained in Russian schools and universities, from the diplomatic and military support the Soviet Union granted to anti-colonial and Non Aligned movement, from the African economic, military, and political networks that span time to today, as well as by the pragmatism with which African leaders appreciate the existence of a competitor to Chinese, Indian or Western offers. Unlike the Chinese, whose presence in Africa has been visible, the Russians have preferred insidious methods, only now coming to light in all their amplitude, and demonstrating that Western afro-pessimism and the global spaces theory that disassociate Sub Saharan Africa from political interest have been the biggest strategic mistakes of the past 20 years.
Are we witnessing a new partition of Sub Saharan Africa?
In July 2014, in Fortaleza, Brazil, the 6th Summit of Emerging Powers took place. Ten extremely interesting meeting conclusions have been summarized by Alecsander Yakovenko, Russian Federation Ambassador in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland[xxi]. Among these, two are the most interesting. The first one is related to the establishment of the New Development Bank, NDB, perceived as a counterbalance of the World Bank. The other one concerns the establishment of the Contingent Reserve Arrangement, a reserve fund to protect against certain financial crises which are likely to undermine the economic development of the the emerging powers. NDB headquarters will be based in Shanghai and its main objective will be supporting emerging economies of which are automatically counted the emerging African economies. The philosophy of the BRICS organization, which flows from the decisions compiled by Yakovenko, is the creation of alternative exchange markets which would become a counterbalance to the neo-liberal system and to Bretton Woods-type instruments which have ruled the political and economic-financial world over the last 70 years.
In 2015, Russia will attain the rotating presidency of BRICS. The next BRICS Summit is scheduled for July 2015 in Ufa, capital of the Republic of Bashkorostan. The Russian agenda, according to Yakovenko, will aim to create a strategy of multilateral economic cooperation, a map of cooperation in investments, the creation of associations in the field of energy and energy policies, a fuel bank, cultural cooperation, educational cooperation and a processing center specializing in the metallurgical industry. Professor Georgy Toloraya, department head for Regional Projects of the Russkiy Mir Foundation and chief executive officer CEO of BRICS National Research Committee, said that in the context of current developments in Europe, Russia is obliged to reorient itself and Africa is a priority objective.
If for the People’s Republic of China and India, African space is, above all, a source of energy and ores, for Russia things are different. Russia is a leading producer of hydrocarbons and has huge deposits of ferrous and non-ferrous ores. Russia’s presence in Africa is more related to the need of maintaining an energy vise on the Europeans by control and distribution of hydrocarbons, of blocking access by competitors to African resources so as to hold diplomatic advantage which may be used in Ukraine type situations. The subject of the rebuilding of the former Soviet empire is more than just the annexation of ex-Soviet republics but rather the restoration of the Russian sphere of influence. The USSR was a major player in Africa and hidden supporter of the Non Aligned Movement. We have already seen Moscow’s strong orientation toward Africa. Are the BRICS going to be the new Non Aligned Movement? Will the BRICS become a Russian tool for a new partition of Sub Saharan Africa to Moscow’s benefit? The answers are found in Beijing.
In 2013, at the Durban, South Africa, Summit, the BRICS decided to create NDB. The negotiations which have occurred since that date have been related to the percentages that each country would hold as shareholders in the new financial institutions. In September 2013, at the BRICS meeting held in St. Petersburg, Russia, China declared its readiness to allocate $41 billion and to host the central headquarters of NDB, while the rest of the $100 billion agreed to for NDB would be shared among the remaining participants, specifically, South Africa depositing $5 billion, while the Russian Federation, Brazil and India would contribute $18 billion each[xxii]. China’s determination to become the leader of BRICS was made obvious by their proportion of contributions to the fund, despite the dissatisfaction Brazil and India expressed regarding the algorithm used for the NDB shares[xxiii].
What do the Chinese leaders think about the Russian proposal to replace the US Dollar with the Russian Rubble as an international currency, as Russian ambassador Vadim Lukov proposed[xxiv]? They are certainly not very excited at such a prospect. Tensions within the BRICS are just at the beginning. China is undeniable the leader of the organization, with major interests in Sub Saharan Africa which extend from hydrocarbon resources, uranium and REM, to diamond mines and agricultural land, up to the Lebensraum required by a population on the rise. Russia has become a competitor of China in the Sub Saharan region and a contextual partner in the process of China’s success as a superpower. Will China want to share its sphere of influence with another player? It’s hard to believe it would. For now, China assumes the role of the “wise old man who stands beside the river and waits“, the old concept, Wu Wei, the vigilant waiting. The Beijing leaders know that Moscow is clamped in a vice between Putin’s boundless ambitions and geostrategic reality. Russia desperately needs China as an ally in coping with the West. Conversely, China has no need for Russia other than for its energy resources and minerals ores as well as for its extremely thinly populated Siberian taiga. Rather, China needs Western European markets to maintain its annual eight percent economic growth rate in order to reduce the population percentage that lives below the poverty level in the center part of the country. As recently as seven years ago some 800 million of that nation’s total of 1.3 billion lived in poverty. Undoubtedly, China is the winner in the current Ukrainian crisis, because it will be able to put an assortment of questions on the table, with little effort, such as the status of Taiwan, the question of the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands, space exploration, as well as other international trade and customs matters.
The current Russian offensive in Africa is a two-edged sword for Moscow. On the one side there is the rebuilding of the super-power image of the Russian state, while on the other side that charge collides with the interests of three partners of BRICS, i.e. China, India and the SAR. Within a few short years we will see how much cohesion remains among BRICS members.
On the other hand, in 2000, the Clinton Administration laid the foundations of a mechanism for the integration of the African market in the global economy called AGOA – Africa Growth and Opportunity Act[xxv], which is in fact a commercial agreement between the United States of America and 40 African states. The objectives of this agreement are to encourage trade between the parties by granting “free access to the US market of products coming from these states, access to credit and to American free technical expertise and (to) encourage reforms and efforts for development“. This decision was followed by the building, in effect from the 1st of October 2008, of the United States Africa Command USAFRICOM, „one of six of the U.S. Defense Department’s geographic combatant commands, responsible to the Secretary of Defense for military relations with African nations, the African Union, and African regional security organizations”Bopy Gris Zalisa Bopy Gris Gris Bopy Zalisa Zalisa Zalisa Bopy Bopy Gris BqzfZUxzw. In June 2012, the Obama administration published the US strategy toward Sub-Saharan Africasandals heel Quiz diamante Pink satin qqI7P In this document it is stated that “Africa is more important than ever to the security and prosperity of the international community, and to the United States in particular,” and that “the United States will not stand idly by when actors threaten legitimately elected governments or manipulate the fairness and integrity of the democratic processes, and we will stand in steady partnership with those who are committed to the principles of equality, justice, and the rule of law“.
In 2013, USA president Barack Obama has made an official visit to Senegal, South Africa, and Tanzania where he announced the decision of some American companies to invest $ 7 billion into African electrification networks and agriculture. Are these measures sufficient? Obviously not. Obviously, the last 25 post-Cold War years of diminished interest on Sub Saharan Africa by American administrations gave free way to China and Russia. Obviously, American administrations’ weak reactions have allowed increasing Russian influence in Europe and increasing energy dependence of the European Union on Russian gas. Maybe reconsideration of restrictions on the export of American gas to Europe and, recognition that Sub Saharan Africa as an area of utmost importance to the status quo, as well a new strategy to Africa, would reverse America and the West’s declining role in Africa.
Ev Canvas Player Blancnoir Converse Ox Star M Are there going to be new conflicts in the near future in the Sub Saharan region? It might be possible. The spectrum of unified terrorist organizations operating in Africa in conjunction with the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant ISIL can be very real. Would the great African players as China, Russian Federation and the USA be able to restrain conflicts after the pattern of those in during the Cold War? Yes, but not in the very near future, whereas the Ukrainian and the Syrian conflicts are limiting their options. It is most likely that, in the near future, Sub Saharan Africa will become the subject of soft power tools only.
Sub Saharan Africa is the global space which can ensure the rebuilding of revanchist Russia’s sphere of influence and super-power image lost after the dismemberment of the USSR. Aware of Georgia and Ukraine’s desire to escape her sphere of influence, the Russian Federation has prepared herself for the time when relations with the West will once again freeze into a Cold War. Since 2008, immediately after the conclusion of the Georgian crisis, Russia has sought to make the EU increasingly dependent upon Moscow’s gas and pipeline system. Control of the Trans-Saharan gas pipeline is such a tactic, as well as Russian dominance of the Algerian gas fields. The consistent and determined strategy toward reestablishment of traditional Russian spheres of influence aims, additionally, to an increase in the number of favorable African votes in the UN General Assembly for Russian positions and to extend control over as many African resources as possible.
To achieve these goals the Russian are employing a wide range of hybrid type tools. Recent news which has burst out in the Nigerian press regarding the financing of the terrorist organization Boko Haram by president Jonathan’s intimates, and of the Nigerian government’s decision to ask for Russian military expertise in counter terrorism due to a lack of Western support, even indirectly links to Russia. On the other hand, Russia wants to become the BRICS leader and to make use of that organization as a platform of its re-affirmation as a great power. But, the distance between aims and geostrategic reality is very great, indeed, over which both China and the USA both present many obstacles. Furthermore, the Ukrainian crisis and the cooling of the relations between the West and the Russian Federation will have echoes both in Sub Saharan Africa, as well as in the Taiwan and Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands disagreements. Possible African developments, in the wake of the Ukrainian and Syrian crises, could vary from the broadened use of soft power tools, to major instabilities generated by an alliance of terrorist organizations Boko Haram and Al Shabab to ISIL, as well as the possibility of new bipolar-type conflicts in the medium and long term.
This work was possible with the financial support of the Sectoral Operational Programme for Human Resources Development 2007-2013, co-financed by the European Social Fund, under the project number POSDRU/159/1.5/S/138822 with the title “Transnational network of integrated management of intelligent doctoral and postdoctoral research in the fields of Military Science, Security and Intelligence, Public order and National Security – Continuous formation programme for elite researchers – “SmartSPODAS”.
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Dr. Alba Iulia Catrinel POPESCU and Dr. Tiberiu Tănase
Abstract: The 2011 series of protests and riots, known as the “Arab Spring” swept away Ba’athist and Nasserist regimes in North Africa. One after another, secular Arab world leaders were removed from power by the anger of a population caught between a secular and repressive plutocracy and the utopian fantasies of a Medina-type society promised by the Salafists. Ummah al arabiyah is day by day becoming Ummah al Islamiyah, as the Western democratic model is demonized and the specter of terrorism extends throughout Northern Africa. Libya’s Gaddafi regime collapsed creating a hotbed of instability with reverberations across Africa and threatens to destabilize European countries, too. What are the implications of Lybia’s failure on European security? How serious is the situation?Booties Margaret Suede Frye Braided Black Ankle Boots O0pYpA
Key words: Arab Spring, Nasserism, Libya, Gaddafi, illegal migration, organized crime , terrorism, hybrid war
Motto: “We used to think of migration as a human security issue: protecting people and providing assistance (…) Now we clearly perceive—or misperceive—migration as a national security issue. And the risk of securitizing migration is that you risk legitimizing extraordinary responses.”
Khalid Koser- Brookings Institution’s Senior Fellow
Converse Player Canvas Star Ox Ev M Blancnoir The year 2011, was the end of the postwar order in North Africa and the Middle East. The “Arab Spring” swept away Ba’athist and Nasser-type regimes and left behind a power vacuum contested between Islamist forces and the reformers. In Egypt, the army managed to remove the Islamists and to stabilize the country, in Libya, leader Muammar el Gaddafi’s death at the hands of a mob resulted in a failed state mired in a hotbed of instability with consequences both in the sub-Saharan Africa and Europe. What are the implications of the failure of Libya on European security? How serious is the situation?
„The Arab Spring”
On December 17, 2010, a Tunisian cart vendor, Mohammed Bouazizi, self-immolated in protest against the autocratic regime of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Riots broke out and Ben Ali fled the country. Shortly after, Egypt faced violent protests that led to the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak on February 11, 2011, after 30 years of totalitarian rule. The uprisings move on to Libya where, after 42 years of absolute power, Muammar el Gaddafi was killed on October 20, 2011. Then, Ali Abdullah Saleh, the Yemeni president, was forced to resign on February 27, 2012, after 32 years of leadership. The rallies spread throughout the region not always with a change in the political regime. These revolutions failed to replace faulty systems with more functional ones, on the contrary, dictators soon retook power. The Arab Ba’ath or Nasser-type nationalism represented a counterweight to the religious ferocity of Saudi Wahhabism or to the Hanbali movement, the “Muslim Brotherhood” (MB). Or, said in another way, Ummah arabiyah – the Arab world represented a counterweight to the Ummah Islamiyah – the Islamic world. The disintegration of these regimes was followed by the resurgence of Islam and transformation of the Southern Mediterranean and the Middle East regions into a place of insecurity and conflict, a battlefield of proxy wars, with failed states as seedbeds for Islamist terrorism.
The fall of Gaddafi Libyan regime
2011 Libyan “Arab Spring” fully expressed the concept of proxy war, conflict by third parties, when the powers in competition use internal states vectors to achieve their goals. Gaddafi had not been a reliable leader, on the contrary. He had a rebellious attitude in both the Arab League where he reinstated Libya in 2002, or in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation where his opinions consistently opposed those expressed by the monarchies of the Gulf. A resolute Nasser-follower, he was the promoter of pan-Arabism antipathetical to Ummah Islamiyah where the concept of ethnic and national identities is erased in the favor of Islamic identity. Gaddafi was also a fervent promoter of the Pan-African idea, the African Union, the AU, was born in Sirte, Libya, in 2001. Between 1978-1987, a conflict took place between Libya and Chad on the right of sovereignty over the northern African Aouzou Strip. French intervention tipped victory to Chad. Although Gaddafi was the guest of French President Nicholas Sarkozy at the Elyseé Palace in 2008, by 2011, the same French president used the French military to remove the Libyan dictator from power. Two explanations for this dramatic reversal lay in accusations that Libyan money helped finance Sarkozy’s 2007 presidential campaign, and that Libya thwarted France’s geopolitical interests in the Sahel. Moreover, Gaddafi’s involvement in the AU and its manifest Pan-African attitude came into collision with France’s Françafrique political concept with Paris’ role of “protector” of her former African colonies. On the 17th of March 2011, the United Nations Security Council adopted Resolution 1973 that provided the legal framework for building a coalition that would carry out the mission of eliminating the Libyan leader. So, a proxy fight in the Libyan civil war has become an internationalized classical war.
France’s inability to manage the Libyan crisis after Gaddafi’s death generated prolonged instability and the emergence of multiple centers of power that have turned Libya into a failed state, ruled by clans in permanent confrontation, after the pattern of Somalia. The current Libyan government, located in Tobruk, controls the territory that surrounds the city and nothing more.
GlobalSecurity.org analystsBlancnoir Converse Ox Player Star Ev Canvas M  quote an expert on North African security, George Joffe of Cambridge University, who said in 2014, that in Libya around 350 militias were active. The same GlobalSecurity.org analysts cite other sources saying that, in the same period of time over 1700 armed groups were active in Libya most espousing differing, often conflicting ideologies. Along the border with Egypt three major groups operated, two of which remain affiliated to the MB, while the third is connected to Al Qa’ida (AQ).
The main groups operating in Libya, according to GlobalSecurity.org, are :
On October 5, 2014, Islamist Libyan militias, except Ansar al-Sharia Darnah and their allies from Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council, announced affiliation to the Islamic State (IS) and creation of the caliphate in Darnah. In February 2015, the IS militias conquered the city of Nawfaliya but, in March, they were forced to withdraw after an offensive led by General National Congress forces, the new parliament from Tripoli. In May 23, 2015, IS militias conquered the city Sirte, the birthplace of former Libyan leader Gaddafi.Black Boots Frye Natalie Black Booties Frye 0xF7Tqwg
European security implications
Failed states Libya, Iraq and Syria, were key factors in the dissemination of Islamist groups over North Africa, the Sahel and the Arabian Peninsula. A lack of state authority allowed free traffic of weapons and ammunition, training bases and safe havens for Islamist recruits, supply, and troop transport corridors. In the tumultuous North African and the Arabian peninsula the line between organized crime and terrorism becomes thinner and more porous as the two phenomena move toward amalgamation. The situation is further complicated when these networks are involved in the management of illegal migration, which is both a source of income, and of extending the network in other areas. And, the situation acquires an explosive character when the three phenomena: migration, organized crime and terrorism, become instruments of hybrid war.
Illegal cross-border migration, organized crime and terrorism. The United Nations (UN) defines migration as a movement from one of the over 200 nations of the world to another, over a period of 12 months or less, regardless of the objective. Migration is prompted by the significant differences in economic and demographic growth, income, jobs, resources, security, and protection of human rights between countries of the world. International migration is also both an effect and cause of population growth. Governments have an the capacity to adjust migration through passports, visas and border control. Regarding migrants, we must make the distinction between migrants on one side and asylum seekers and refugees on the other side. Migrants decide to emigrate for reasons other than those related to violence. In the second category there is a legal difference, refugees are asylum seekers whose application has been approved by the host state.
But when migration involves large masses of people who, during a short period of time, arrive en mass on the border of a country, it becomes a security threat to the targeted state because of economic, safety and public order costs that are generated by a massive influx of people. When these masses have a different ideological and cultural profile than the local population, moreover, when there are major differences that inevitably will collide, these threats may become explosive. When such a migration is coordinated by an originating state or a coalition of states, it acquires the character of aggression that can be enumerated among the categories of hybrid war.
The current “refugees” migration in Europe and especially into Germany falls into the category of massive migrations coordinated by organized crime networks with state connections. In the mid July 2015, German Chancellor Angela Merkel attended a TV show where one of the participants, a 14-year old Palestinian refugee named Reem Sahvin, burst into tears when the German leader told her that Germany could not afford to integrate all refugees. From that moment, Angela Merkel became the target of an unprecedented wave of criticism in German and international media. Faced with image-related attacks about the attitude towards refugees, but also about the financial policy pursued over Greece (threatening with leaving the European Union (EU), and based on a geopolitical calculation linked to the influence Germany might have in the post – conflict era in Syria, Chancellor Merkel declared in August 24, 2015 that her country would offer asylum to all Syrian refugees. Thus, in August 2015, Germany announced the suspension for the Syrians, of the “Dublin Rules” (which require sending back to the European country of entrance all of asylum seekers). The argument for this decision was that it represented a gesture of solidarity with Greece, Italy, Malta, Spain and the rest of the states on transit routes of the migrants. Shortly after that, the invasion began. Germany started to receive waves of thousands of migrants. After a wave of 40,000 migrants during a weekendLegendhalo Adobe Pumps Weitzman Stuart Legendhalo Stuart Weitzman Adobe P6ddRwq, in September 2015, Germany reinstated border controls. On the other side, the EU transit States, were destabilized by the waves of migrants, and imposed protective measures: Belgium, Netherlands, Austria, Slovakia, Poland closed borders, Hungary, Spain, Portugal built protection fences, and Hungary decided to use her armed forces to stabilize her border. Then, with European unity at stake, Brussels imposed EU-wide mandatory refugee quotas under the threat of economic penalties. The crisis deepened.
Meanwhile, data appeared describing the demographic composition of the migrants. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), over the first nine months of 2015, 499,826 migrants came to Europe by sea, comprising Syrians 54%, Afghani 13%, Eritreans 7%, Nigerians 3%, Somalis 2%, Sudanese 2%, with other nations represented, as well. The gender and age groups of the migrants provides further chilling information: 69% were men, 13% were women and 18% were children. With such a demographic structure it is very hard to accept that all these migrants are fleeing from violence, the definition of a refugee. If that were the case, then women and children would make up the majority of asylum applicants, but they seem to have been left behind while men have fled. There are field observations pointing out the male asylum seekers are overwhelmingly of military age. The explanation could be related to economic emigration (mostly of Asian and African migrants, and of the refugees from the camps in Syria’s neighboring countries) or, as it has been rumored, many jihadists are among the migrant waves. The data do not include migrants who have arrived in Europe by land.
In Fig.1 the migrants routes from Africa, the Arabian Peninsula and Southeast Asia to Europe are shown. There are two categories of routes: prevailing sea routes from North Africa to European shores, and the prevailing land routes from Southeast Asia, Iran and the Arabian Peninsula. The key state in the smuggling of migrants by sea is Libya where most routes from the Western and Eastern Africa converge. This is due to the absence of a government in Libya able to destroy human trafficking networks, and to the hundreds of militias and criminal groups who share, today, Libyan territory, and that profit from transporting migrants to Europe.
Player Ev Ox Converse Star Canvas M Blancnoir Fig.1: Migration routes toward Europe
Federica Mogherini, High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy of the EU, asked in May 2015, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) authorization to use military force against human trafficking networks operating from Libyan shores and ports. The inquiry was immediately rejected by the internationally recognized Libyan government, and the Russian Federation announced it would use its veto in the UNSC if such a proposal would be presented for a vote. In September 2015, according to deputy director of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), Jeanne Park, Mogherini announced plans to resume talks about military intervention against traffickers vessels, an operation to be undertaken in cooperation with the Libyan authorities and the UN. The fact that, in May 2015, Mogherini raised only the problem of the sea routes meant terrestrial routes were effectively controlled by Turkey and Greece, so the main share of migrants was arriving from Northern Africa
According to UNHCR, since the onset of hostilities in Syria in 2011, approximately 1.9 million refugees have crossed into Turkey, while another 1.1 million are in Lebanon and 630,000 in Jordan. The effects of this demographic pressure are intensely felt by the economies of the host countries.
Polish war reporter and expert in intelligence, Witold Gadowski, in an interview with the Polish website fronda.pl argued that “the real victims of the war are currently in the camps of Iraqi Kurdistan, in Southern Turkey and Lebanon. They are there for over one year. They are Shiites, Christians, Yazidis. I mention them deliberately in that order, because that is the order of IS persecution.”Splendor SARENZA Nobil SARENZA Mr Mr Bordo Splendor Nobil pqwYBB Moreover, Gadowski said about asylum seekers in Europe that “among them there are very few Christians, very few Yazidis and very few Kurds, those who are really suffering because of the IS. Most of them are “smart guys”(opportunists) who could afford to pay 10,000 Dollars to be transported on the Old Continent by the mob. Ninety percent of them are brought here by the criminal Turkish, Albanian and Russian Mafia.” At the same time, Polish experts say the Russian Mafia is trading above 90% of the looted Syrian artifacts, the money eventually enriching IS leaders, while the Albanian Mafia controls and profits from the migrant smuggling through the port of Vlora.
Terrorism is a phenomenon that currently benefits from immigrant crises. Wars for resources fuel immigrants crises, which, in turn, fuel international terrorism. In the transatlantic security space it is estimated that the most serious threat is the IS. Many groups engaged in international jihad offer support to the IS in various forms: raising funds, recruiting and training new members. Their network is sufficiently developed to carry out terrorist actions on the territory of democratic states considered safe from terrorism. The threats represented by some terrorist cells, clandestinely operating in democratic states, produces also concern. Their ability to quickly regroup is the most serious challenge posed to intelligence services and for law enforcement agencies responsible for identifying and annihilating terror cells. “Lone wolves” are multiplying the threat, due to their lack of affiliation or communication with any known group. The specter of terrorists procuring a nuclear weapon has led to a state of permanent alert of security forces. Collected intelligence confirms that terrorist organizations are in the market for weapons of mass destruction, as well as searching the internet for information regarding chemical, biological, radioactive, nuclear weapons.
In Witold Gadowski’s opinion, the wave of refugees who continue to pour into Europe, especially toward Germany, is organized by four centers: “one (emanating from) Ar-Rakkah, representing the capital of the Islamic State that foments an uncontrolled wave of refugees toward Europe, and among them, (they) infiltrate Agents…specialized in murders and suicide bombings. A separate department of IS deals with these things and maintains communication with all “lone wolf” networks scattered throughout the world and ready to commit “şahizi” – i.e., (act as) suicide bombers. This (broad dispersion of lone wolves) is very dangerous, difficult, and practically impossible to detect. Another center (of command) is in Ankara, which gave way to the wave of refugees. They clean their land of Kurds, but the Kurds don’t want to run. Instead, nearly 2 million refugees from Syria are now living in (camps in) Southern Turkey. They are free to go to Europe. In my opinion, another command center is in Moscow, which wants to involved itself in the Middle East more than ever before. And she wants by this wave of refugees to keep Europe preoccupied – even the United States, to a lesser extent. There is therefore (support for the migrant invasion of Europe) in at least three places, and I believe that Tehran is involved, too.”Canvas Ev Ox Converse Player Star M Blancnoir 
If we look at the territorial distribution of the militias operating in the Libyan territory, we notice that the Misrata region and Tripoli port, (where it carries out a heavy traffic of migrants to the European shores), are controlled by Fajr Libya and the Misrata Brigades supported by Turkey. There are also numerous statements made by government officials or former intelligence officers who accused Russia of involvement in the resurgence of Al Qa’ida and the IS type of jihadism, such as former FSB Colonel Aleksandr Valterovich Litvinenko, and former chief of Estonian Espionage, Eerik Kross Niiles, Brigadier General Ahmad Aljjdeaa, deputy defense minister in the Syrian government in exile, and the current Ukrainian Minister of the Foreign Affairs, Pavlo Klimkin. The northern Libyan port of Benghazi is controlled by Ansar al-Shari’a AQ affiliate and their allies from Benghazi, the February 17 Martyrs Brigade and the Shura Council of Benghazi Revolutionaries. The port of Darnah is controlled by Islamist militias affiliated with IS. Considering these connections and conditions it is possible for Russia to be involved in the flood of migrants from northern Libya.suede Dark Gabor blue wedge 'Request' shoes E6q8f
Gadowski’s statements lay out a hypothesis with serious connotations, that the illegal migration as a hybrid war instrument, used by states that have direct interest in destabilizing Europe. Russia is obviously most interested in such disruption, since the economic sanctions imposed by the Occident, and oil prices slumping to $46 per barrel (the Russian federal budget is based on a per barrel price of at least $100!) have serious negative impact on its economy. Turkey, in turn, is angered by American support for the Kurds. Also, Turkey seems determined to return to the Ottoman model. These issues are added to the challenges related to the control of hydrocarbon deposits in the Mediterranean Basin and the maintaining of the Russian energy vise upon Europe. Germany, and primarily Chancellor Merkel, as a promoter of economic sanctions against Russia, have become the main targets. Strategically, Russia needs to break European unity in order to reconvert the European map into a big geopolitical chessboard. This is the first step towards breaking up the NATO alliance and transatlantic unity.
The “Arab Spring” ended Ummah Arabiyah, the Arab World, and replaced it with Ummah Islamyiah, the Islamic World. Failed states, Libya and Syria, have become a theater of proxy war which have generated an instability that has spread across three continents: Africa, Asia and Europe. Islamist barbarism has caused millions of refugees to flee their homes. Between the years 2011-2015, according to UNHCR, 3.63 million Syrian Shiites, Christians, Kurds, and Yazidis sought protection in neighboring countries: principally Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan. By 2015, a peak of dislocation and conflict was precipitated as a result of a series of geopolitical events:
In the context of a new Cold War in August 2015, Germany, some analysts have written, decided to abolish the “Dublin Rule” for Syrian refugees and to gain a geopolitical advantage in Syria in the post-conflict era. Statements regarding Germany’s decision to receive without restraint Syrian refugees as a remedy for Germany’s declining demographics is not supportable, as Eastern and Southern Europe suffers high levels of unemployment and poverty, but their unemployed is not encouraged to come to Germany. Consequently, resettlement of refugees in the Balkans would only exacerbate unemployment there.
Shortly after that, the invasion began, with the following features (September 2015):
The European states on the immigration route to Germany have been destabilized by the migratory wave and decided to close their borders. The same policy was also eventually adopted by Germany in September 2015, after a surge of 40,000 migrants arrived in Bavaria the first weekend in September.
In May 2015, the High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy of the EU, Federica Mogherini, tried to get Security Council approval to intervene militarily against Libyan traffickers of migrants, but faced the firm opposition of Russia and of the rump Libyan government. Relevant sources (intelligence officers, government officials) accuse Russia of involvement in the current resurgence of Islamism, and in the creation of IS. Moreover, Polish war reporter Witold Gadowski charges the Russian, Albanian and Turkish Mafia in management of migrant smuggling. Also, he states that a huge amount of money is obtained through smuggling and through the sale of Syrian artifacts, where Russian Mafia controls 90% of the trade. The same Polish reporter observes that the real victims of Islamist barbarism are the Shiites, Christians, Kurds and Yazidis that were displaced in 2011, but remain in the Kurdish territories within the region, as well as in Lebanon and Jordan, rather the the current invasion of Europe consists mostly of opportunistic Sunnis able to pay the amounts of money requested by the mob. Part of them are economic migrants, some are jihadiis. Furthermore, he argues that this phenomenon is coordinated from four command centers: SI, Russia, Turkey an, possibly, Iran.
These combined elements suggest a state-directed invasion via routes managed by organized crime and terrorist networks in order to destabilize Germany, the motor of the EU; to attack the image of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, an Atlanticist leader of Germany in the mold of Chancellor Helmut Köhl, not in the image of former Chancellor Gerhardt Schoëder who is considered strongly pro-Russian; to destroy European unity, and subsequently to destroy the transatlantic relationship. These are all typical tactics of hybrid war. Therefore, the two outbreaks of instability, Libya, the most important African pier of the Trans-Mediterranean migrant route, and Syria have destabilizing effects on Central Europe. The situation is more serious as the wave of migration seems to be part of a hybrid war aggression with the aim of decreasing the responsiveness of the EU towards the aggressive plans of the Russian Federation in Syria and Ukraine, and to undermine Europe’s determination to maintain the current economic sanctions against Russia. These conclusions should be read in conjunction with the current Russian President Putin’s self-image to counterbalance domestic economic discontent, and maintenance of his image as the defender of Mother Russia, and all of Humanity in the battle against “American fascism”.
Platino Platino Maria Corda Maria Primigi Corda Primigi Primigi Corda Platino Corda Maria Platino Primigi Maria Primigi q6RwW1aH4Angelique Chrisafis, French inquiry opens into allegations Gaddafi funded Sarkozy 2007 campaign, 19.04.2013, The Guardian, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/apr/19/french-inquiry-gaddafi-sarkozy-2007-campaign, accessed on 20.04.2015
Libyan Civil War – 2014, globalsecurity.org, http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/libya-civil-war-2.htm, accessed on 20.04.2015
Dorothy nude fit Wide lotta Perkins loafers yvqvUfpRErnst Douglas, Islamic State takes Lybian City; 100k under terror group’s control as chaos spreads, 18.11.2014, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/nov/18/islamic-state-takes-libyan-city-100k-under-terror-/ , accessed on 20.04.2014
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Pro-Tripoli forces retake Nawfaliya from ISIS, Al Jazeera, ANSAmed, 19.03.2015, http://www.ansamed.info/ansamed/en/news/nations/libya/2015/03/19/pro-tripoli-forces-retake-nawfaliya-from-isis-al-jazeera_9932286d-19fa-4f2b-9e4d-4656997d609a.html, accessed on 25.04.2015
Blinky V Tuerkis LICO Rosa Starshine XEqxYIn Libya, ISIS takes over Muammar Gaddafi’s home, News of Africa, 23.05.2015, http://newsofafrica.org/139774.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook, accessed on 24.05.2015
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GR THYMAR ANTHRACITE B Geox D FONCÉ tZqtawGermany opens its gates: Berlin says all Syrian asylum-seekers are welcome to remain, as Britain is urged to make a ‘similar statement’, Independent, 24.08.2015, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/germany-opens-its-gates-berlin-says-all-syrian-asylum-seekers-are-welcome-to-remain-as-britain-is-10470062.html, accessed on 19.09.2015
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Calderwood Imogen, Number of migrants entering Germany DOUBLES with 40,000 expected to arrive this weekend alone, mail online, 14.09.2015, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3231846/Number-migrants-entering-Germany-DOUBLES-40-000-expected-arrive-weekend-alone.html, accessed on 20.09.2015
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Jeanne Park, Idem. op.cit.
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 Anca Cernea, Adevăratele victime ale Statului Islamic nu sunt printre migranții care vin în Europa – Witold Gadowski, Idem. op.cit.
These informations can be accessed in The Islamic State versus Al Qa’ida : Who Will Win written by Alba Iulia Catrinel Popescu, which will be presented at the International Conference on “Intelligence in the Knowledge Society”, XXI Edition, National Academy information “Mihai Viteazul” , Bucharest, 16 to 17 October 2015 .
Care este „reţeta” unei lumi mai sigure?
Dr. Md. Alba Iulia Catrinel Popescucream court Peter 'Elektra' Kaiser shoes Dark dress womens xEwq6wpSBW
Publicat în volumul comun „STUDII DE ISTORIE V”, Ed: Constantin Buşe, Ionel Cândea, sub egida ACADEMIEI OAMENILOR DE ŞTIINŢĂ DIN ROMÂNIA, Secţiunea de ştiinţe istorice şi arheologice, Editura Istrios a Muzeului Brăilei „CAROL I”, Brăila, 2016, pp.579-585, ISBN:978-606-654-001-8; ISBN: 978-606-654-194-7.
În anii 1950, într-un articol devenit celebru[i], intitulat „Star Player Canvas M Blancnoir Ev Converse Ox National Security” as an Ambiguous Symbol politologul elveţian Arnold Wolfers (1892-1968) a oferit una dintre cele mai interesante definiții ale conceptului de securitate: „securitatea, în sens obiectiv, măsoară absența amenințărilor la adresa valorilor dobândite, iar într-un sens subiectiv, absența temerii că asemenea valori vor fi atacate”. Este o definiţie remarcabilă întrucât comprimă în doar câteva cuvinte cele două direcţii de analiză politică şi de securitate: pozitivismul pragmatic, obiectiv, care cuantifică securitatea prin prisma nivelului de ameninţare şi postpozitivismul, subiectiv, de percepţie, care evaluează securitatea prin nivelul de încredere în relaţia dintre state.
Divizaţi între obiectivitatea pozitivismului şi subiectivitatea post-pozitivismului, exegeţii securităţii au căutat „reţeta” unei lumi mai sigure în interiorul celor trei paradigme care structurează studiile de securitate (realismul, liberalismul şi constructivismul social) pe care le-au adaptat timpurilor şi realităţilor societale. Dacă până la sfârşitul Primului Război Mondial ordinea mondială era dictată de orgoliile unui număr restrâns de suverani asimilaţi statului[ii], dispariţia imperiilor sau, după caz, apariţia formulelor de compromis de tipul monarhiilor constituţionale în care monarhul îşi transferă prerogativele decizionale primului ministru, au însemnat sfârşitul clasicei balanţei de putere realiste şi pătrunderea în forţă a noilor actori politici născuţi din „cenuşa” acestor imperii. Pe tot parcursul secolului al XX-lea, mediul de securitate global s-a complicat prin apariţia a 193 de state recunoscute internaţional, prin creşterea influenţei actorilor nonstatali şi prin apariţia unui actor global, (nonstatal de iure şi statal de facto) care a înlocuit puterea suveranului, respectiv opinia publică. Şi, cum procesul decizional a trecut de la formulele directe ale discuţiilor bilaterale între autocraţii vremurilor, la nevoia de a împăca o multitudine de interese, a fost creată noua arhitectură a securităţii colective de sorginte neoliberală, completată ulterior de elementele securităţii umane propuse de constructivişti rezultând formule de graniţă, interparadigmatice, hibride.
Care sunt „ingredientele reţetei” unei lumi mai sigure la început de secol XXI şi cum se regăsesc acestea în construcţia de securitate subsahariană?
Realismul politic susţine rolul fundamental al interesului în motivarea comportamentului politic al statelor. De la anticii Plautus (255 î.Hr.-185 î.Hr.) şi Tucidide (460 î.Hr.-395 î.Hr.) la Thomas Hobbes (1588-1679) şi Maximilian Weber (1864-1920), de la Hans Joachim Morgenthau (1904-1980) şi Edward Hallett Carr (1892-1982) la Kenneth Waltz (1924-2013) şi, mai recent, la Henry Kissinger şi Zbigniew K. Brzezinski, realiştii clasici sau neoclasici au afirmat că lumea este un spaţiu competiţional, anarhic, ordonat de dreptul forţei.
Şi istoria tinde să le dea dreptate. Africa Subsahariană este un astfel de exemplu. Începând cu anii 1960, anii decolonializarii şi ai schimbării jucătorilor geostrategici, Africa Subsahariană a fost macinată de conflicte, crize, violenţe, generate de miza împărţirii bogăţiei acestui spaţiu. Evident, poate mai mult decât în alte spaţii globale, în Africa, dreptul forţei a fost mai puternic decât forţa dreptului iar, scopurile au scuzat mijloacele.
Abordarea clasică, realistă, identifică securitatea cu puterea militară, atribut exclusiv al statului național, cu raportul de forțe care acționează în mediul internațional devenit mediu de securitate. Fondatorul curentului neorealist în relațiile internaționale, politologul american Kenneth Waltz a asociat supraviețuirea statului într-un sistem anarhic, de capacitatea acestuia de a genera securitate. Statul, în viziunea lui Waltz, reprezintă depozitarul și furnizorul de securitate, însăși rațiunea de a fi a statului suprapunându-se rolului fundamental al acestuia de protector şi apărător al intereselor vitale ale cetățenilor săi. Din această perspectivă, incapacitatea statului de a asigura securitatea cetățenilor, de a gestiona administrativ și politic teritoriul, definește eșecul, eșuarea şi transformarea sa într-o formă fără fond, care beneficiază de atributele statale dar este incapabilă să-și exercite puterea. Din această perspectivă, Africa Subsahariană reprezintă spaţiul global unde se înregistrează cele mai multe state eşuate sau în curs de eşuare'Mable2' Geiger loafers 'Mable2' Geiger Kurt KG KG Kurt BUxOU58q, măcinate de conflicte, impotenţă administrativă, corupţie, subdezvoltare şi sărăcie.
În contrapondere, liberalismul, în calitate de continuator al iluminismului, a redefinit omul ca măsură a tuturor lucrurilor, liber în gândire şi raţional în decizii. Raţionalitatea deciziei politice, cooperarea interumană şi interstatală precum şi guvernarea cu poporul, pentru popor, au fost câteva dintre ideile promovate de „părinţii” liberalismului John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946), Adam Smith (1723-1790), Jon Stuart Mill (1806-1873), David Ricardo (1772-1823) şi Immanuel Kant (1724-1804).
Filozoful german Immanuel Kant, spre exemplu, a propus modelul unui sistem internaţional structurat pe modelul unei federaţii de state libere, normată de o lege unanim acceptată. Modelul kantian propune un nou model de organizare a sistemului internaţional care înlocuieşte structura piramidală, ierarhică (bazată pe dreptul „divin” al unui muritor de a conduce şi a dispune lumea după bunul plac, specifică imperiului) cu o structură globală, interferenţială, în care ordinea este realizată printr-un sistem legislativ adoptat de toţi, o „lume kantiană” a cooperării, egalităţii, libertăţii, fraternităţii şi securităţii colective, în fapt o întoarcere la preceptele ideale, antice ale democraţiei.
De la Jeremy Bentham (1748-1832) la Francis Fukuyama, adepţii liberalismului au pledat pentru libertatea individului, libertatea şi progresul omenirii, interdependenţa şi cooperarea spaţiilor, pentru domnia legii. Viziunea liberală tradusă în domeniul studiilor de securitate a primit numele de idealism, întrucât exclude interesul şi pune accent pe etică, moralitate şi legalitate în relaţia dintre state.
În Africa Subsahariană, liberalismul s-a concretizat în domeniul instituţional, Uniunea Africană fiind un spaţiu comun de cooperare şi de exprimare politică. Principiile liberale au constituit fundaţia pe care s-a încercat clădirea statelor moderne africane, independente, laice, democratice şi tot principiile liberale au fost motoarele dezvoltării economice şi cooperării regionale în structuri precum The Economic Community of West African States E.C.O.W.A.S., The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa C.O.M.E.S.A., The Community of Sahel-Saharan States C.E.N.-S.A.D., The East African Community E.A.C., The Economic Community of Central African States E.C.C.A.S., The Intergovernmental Authority on Development I.G.A.D., The Southern Africa Development Community S.A.D.C.
La începutul anilor 1950, John H. Herz lansa ideea unei „dileme a securității”[iv]. Cu cât statele sunt mai preocupate de asigurarea propriei securități, cu atât crește insecuritatea mediului internațional. Perspectiva propusă de Herz transcrie regulile echilibrului de putere care au creionat trama relațiilor internaționale în ultimele milenii, observând că omenirea se înscrie într-un cerc vicios al insecurității. Desigur, viziunea liberală a autorului în contextul politic și social al bipolarităţii a fost dezavuată de adepții realismului politic dar, fără îndoială, observația lui Herz rămâne valabilă. Excesul de securitate duce la insecuritate atât la nivel individual, psihologic cât și la nivel statal prin limitarea libertăților cetățenilor, prin crearea percepției de stat potențial agresor, mult prea preocupat de problematica securității. Dominanţa alocărilor bugetare destinate instituţiilor de forţă în detrimentul altor sectoare, civile, precum educaţia, cultura, sănătatea reprezintă o emblemă a societăţii neopatriarhale subsahariene africane, descrisă de profesorul de cultură şi civilizaţie arabă din cadrul Universităţii Georgetown, Hisham Sharabi[v], ca fiind captivă între ev mediu şi modernitate, anacronică şi inadaptată acestor vremuri, dominată de patriarhat si de dependenţă, măcinată de corupţie, de violenţe şi de sărăcie.
Soluţia acestei „dileme a securității” o reprezintă securitatea colectivă după cum observa Col. Vasile Pirnea în lucrarea intitulată Dimensiunea de securitate şi apărare a Uniunii Europene: „dilema realistă a securității poate fi cel mai bine depășită nu prin balanța puterii și prin autoajutorare, ci prin instituirea unor angajamente colective prin care fiecare stat își asumă îndatorirea de a se alătura celorlalte împotriva acelora care amenință integritatea teritorială sau independența politică a unuia dintre membrii angajamentului colectiv”[vi].
Numeroasele misiuni de pacificare şi de menţinere a păcii de pe teritoriul subcontinentului subsaharian desfăşurate sub egida Uniunii Africane şi a Organizaţiei Naţiunilor Unite reprezintă expresia concretă a paradigmei neoliberale a securităţii colective.
Constructiviştii au introdus criteriul cultural în structurarea sistemului internaţional. Politologul german Alexander Wendt a combatut realismul politic afirmând că anarhia nu reprezintă un fenomen natural ci unul întreţinut de voinţa politică a statelor. Reprezentanţii constructivismului social precum politologii austrieci Peter Berger şi Thomas Luckmann au pus accent pe importanţa interacţiunii socio-culturale dintre state, pe importanţa bagajului cultural, a tradiţiilor, normelor, ideilor culturale în decizia politică a statelor, pe interacţiunea culturală dintre om şi stat. În domeniul studiilor de securitate, constructivismul susţine structurarea mediului de securitate pe criterii culturale, civilizaţionale. Sistemul internaţional, în viziune constructivistă, reprezintă o societate globală alcătuită din multiple societăţi, normate de tradiţii culturale proprii, aflate la baza construcţiilor statale.
Această abordare devine tot mai actuală. Africa Subsahariană a rămas un spaţiu al etnicităţii, tribalismului, conflictelor interconfesionale şi interetnice, o lume aflată la graniţa dintre tradiţional şi modern, dintre societatea ancestrală, primitivă şi societatea tehnologică.
Referindu-se la etnocentrismul care domină doctrinele militare, Ken Booth, a opinat că acesta reprezintă un fenomen deopotrivă limitativ și periculos afirmând că „acele strategii care nu încearcă să facă parte din soluție, vor deveni fără îndoială o parte tot mai importantă a problemei”[vii], citat devenit celebru în anii 2000.
Politologul canadian Barry Gordon Buzan şi ceilalţi reprezentanţi ai Şcolii de la Copenhaga, au considerat că securitatea naţională reprezintă „Ox M Ev Player Blancnoir Star Canvas Converse un concept slab conceptualizat, dar puternic politizat” susţinând că „dominația conceptului de către ideea de securitate națională precum și interpretarea militarizată a securității” este „excesiv de îngustă” şi propunând totodată, o nouă viziune, exhaustivă, cartografică a securitățiiRite leatherFloral Chelsea 2 Start Navy ZwdRt1wq5 regăsită, ulterior, în paradigma securităţii umane.
Paradigma securităţii umane, iniţiată în 1994, de către Programul de Dezvoltare al Națiunilor Unite U.N.D.P. în cadrul raportului intitulat New Dimensions of Human Security[ix], a înlocuit statocentrismul studiilor de securitate de până atunci cu o viziune nouă, revoluţionară centrată pe securitatea individului, într-o abordare anticipativă a problematicii umane. Raportul U.N.D.P. reprezintă actul de naştere al paradigmei securităţii umane, având ca principiu guvernator Converse M Blancnoir Ev Player Ox Star Canvas freedom from fear – „eliberarea de teamă” considerată a fi cheia securității durabile.
Care dintre abordările de mai sus oferă imaginea cea mai clară a lumii în care trăim? Care dintre ele oferă soluţia cea mai potrivită pentru a trăi într-o lume mai sigură?
Tot mai mulţi exegeţi ai securităţii şi politologiei consideră că răspunsurile cel mai potrivite la aceste întrebări trebuie să reflecte starea actuală de tranziţie şi de incertitudine, între o nouă ordine şi o mare dezordine mondială.
Într-un mediu de securitate eterogen, aflat într-o dinamică tot mai accelerată, cu provocări tot mai diverse, mai neconvenţionale şi mai greu de contracarat, rigiditatea paradigmatică şi cantonarea în formule clasicizate reprezintă „reţeta” unui sfârşit uşor de anticipat. Prin urmare, răspunsul cel mai potrivit la întrebarea legată de „ingredientele reţetei” unei lumi mai sigure la început de secol XXI îl reprezintă eclectismul teoretic încadrat formal de modelele clasice ale lumii „hobbesiene” şi „kantiene”, cu accente interparadigmatice şi constructiviste, menit să surprindă complexitatea şi fluiditatea fenomenelor globale.
[i]Arnold Wolfers, „National Security” as an Ambiguous Symbol, Political Science Quarterly, vol. 67, no. 4. Dec.,1952, pp. 481-502.
[ii] „Statul sunt eu” – “L’état c’est moi” (Fr.) –Afirmaţie aparţinând regelui Franţei Ludovic al XIV-lea (1638-1715).
[iii]FAILED STATES 2013: AN ANNUAL SPECIAL REPORT BY FP AND THE FUND FOR PEACE, disponibil la http://foreignpolicy.com/2013/06/24/failed-states-2013/, accesat la data de 20.07.2015
[iv]John H. Herz, Internaţionalismul idealist şi dilema securităţii, World Politics, 2, 1950, pp. 157-180.
[v]Hisham Sharabi, Neopatriarchy: A Theory of Distorted Change in Arab Society, Oxford University Press, 1988, p. 3-8
[vi]Vasile Pirnea, Dimensiunea de securitate şi apărare a Uniunii Europene, Editura Centrului Tehnic-Editorial al Armatei, Bucureşti, 2005, p. 24
[vii]Ken Booth , Strategy and Ethnocentrism, Londra, Croom Helm, 1979, p. 133.
[viii]Barry Buzan, Popoarele, statele și teama. O agendă pentru studii de securitate internațională în epoca de după războiul rece, ediția a doua, Editura Cartier, pp. 15-40.
[ix]New Dimensions of Human Security, Human Development Report 1994, UNDP, Oxford University Press, New York, 1994, http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/reports/255/hdr_1994_en_complete_nostats.pdf, accesat la data de 29.07.2015, p. 22
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